Glossary of Terms

Demographic Terminology

Death Rate

The total number of deaths in an age cohort divided by the total number of individuals in the cohort. It is calculated for single years of age and is used in the model to calculate the projected annual deaths in the region.

Employed Residents

Refers to the resident employed labor force in a community or area. Employed residents live in the identified community or county but do not necessarily work there. The term employed residents, unlike labor force, does not include the unemployed.

Ethnic Group - see Race

Fertility Rate

Completed Fertility Rate

The average number of children born to women during the childbearing years of 15 to 44.

Period Fertility Rate

A single-year picture reflecting each female cohort's childbearing potential, which is subject to fluctuation based upon short-term social and economic trends. This rate is used in the annual calculation of live births.

Group Quarters Population

Persons who reside in places, such as nursing homes, military facilities, or rooming houses. Two general categories of persons in group quarters are recognized: 1) inmates or residents of institutions, and 2) other persons in noninstitutional group quarters.

Hispanic

Persons of Hispanic Origin identifying themselves generally as Spanish, Spanish-American, Hispanic, Hispano, Latino, etc. Origin can be viewed as ancestry, nationality group, lineage, or country of birth of the person or the person's parents or ancestors.

Household Population

The difference between total population and group quarters population. The term includes all persons living in individual housing units. Units include attached or detached single-units, units in a multiple-unit building, and other miscellaneous units such as mobile homes.

Household Size

The average household size for any forecast period is calculated by dividing household population by the number of households. Projected household size is calculated for each city and county based upon observed trends as well as on assumptions about household formation, housing costs, changing ethnic composition, and births.

Households

Household is another term for occupied dwelling unit. A household includes all persons who occupy a housing unit. A housing unit is a group of rooms or a single room occupied as separate living quarters where occupants live and eat separately from other persons in the building, and have direct access from outside the building or through a common hall. A household can include more than one family.

Mean Household Income (See Constant 1995 Dollars)

The average of the total income earned by or transferred to all members of the household. This figure is calculated by dividing total personal income, as estimated by ABAG, by the total number of households. Total personal income includes estimates of wages and salaries, income from interest, dividends, or rental income, and income obtained through transfer payments, such as social security or public assistance. The income numbers are based upon the definition of income as reported in the U.S. Census. In PROJECTIONS 2000, mean (average) household income is expressed in 1995 dollars.

Race

African American

Persons who reported their race as African American, Afro-American, Black or Negro, Black Puerto Rican, Jamaican, Nigerian, West Indian, or Haitian and who reported they were not of Hispanic origin.

Asian and Pacific Islander

Persons who reported their race as Chinese, Filipino, Japanese, Asian Indian, Korean, Vietnamese, "Other Asian," or one of the Pacific Islander groups, and who reported they were not of Hispanic origin.

Other Non-Hispanic

Persons who reported their race as American Indian, Eskimo, Aleut, or "Other" entries not elsewhere classified, and who reported they were not of Hispanic origin.

White Non-Hispanic

Persons who reported their race as "White" or reported entries such as Canadian, German, Italian, Lebanese, Near Easterner, Arab, or Polish; and who reported they were not of Hispanic origin.

Total Population

The sum of the household population plus the people living in group quarters.

Economic Terminology

Business Services Jobs

Refers to jobs in advertising, consumer credit agencies, commercial, and stenographic services, building services, personnel supply services, computer-programming, and data-processing personnel, miscellaneous business services, legal services, architectural, and engineering services, and noncommercial research organizations. Business services jobs are defined using the 1987 Standard Industrial Classification system (SIC) as codes 73, 81, 87, and 89.

Capital Spending

The amount of investment required to sustain economic growth. Capital spending projections are presented by industry sector.

Commercial Interest Rate

The rate that banks charge their large business customers. In the ABAG projections model, commercial interest rates affect nonresidential, utility, and highway construction, as well as capital formation in manufacturing.

Constant 1995 Dollars

Dollar values that have been adjusted to reflect actual purchasing power as measured by the 1995 CPI. The term constant dollars is interchangeable with the term real dollars. Comparing information presented in constant dollars is especially useful for determining the amount of real growth that has occurred, with the effects of inflation removed.

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

A composite of expenditures by consumers that measures price changes on a monthly basis.

Energy Price Change

The change in the price of electricity and all other fuels. Used to calculate the demand for energy, growth in final demand of personal consumption expenditures, and exports from the region, as well as the demand for replacement capital in the manufacturing sector.

Export Growth Rate

The average export growth rate for each industry sector in the regional economy. This is the most significant factor affecting regional job growth and output.

F.I.R.E.

Includes all jobs in SIC codes 60-67, or the industry sectors finance, insurance, and real estate.

Government Spending Growth Rate

The growth rate of local and state government purchases in the regional economy. This growth rate affects the demand for products produced by an industry sector.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

A value which reflects the sum of consumption expenditures, government spending, capital formation, and net exports. United States' GDP affects demand for products exported from the Bay Area.

Gross Regional Product (GRP)

This number reflects the sum of demand by consumers, capital formation, government spending, and net exports generated in the Bay Area.

High Technology Jobs

Refers to jobs in electronics, computers and office equipment, analysis and system control instruments, medical, and optical design control devices, and research and development in manufacturing. These sectors cover Standard Industrial Classifications 356, 357, 366, 367, and 38 in manufacturing.

Home Mortgage Rate

The average interest rate on a loan secured for the purpose of purchasing or refinancing a home. Used to estimate demand for residential construction jobs.

Job Demand

Refers to the demand by an industry for employees, based upon an output level of that industry.

Labor Force Participation Rate

The percentage of the population over the age of 15 which is either employed or looking for work. The interaction of job and labor force growth drives the migration of workers to and from the Bay Area.

Output Per Worker

The constant dollar output per worker by sector. Output per worker affects prices, demand for a sector's output, and the rate of increase for captal investment by an individual industry.

Personal Consumption Expenditure Rate

The expected rate of change in consumption purchases by Bay Area households from Bay Area businesses. Personal consumption expenditures are affected by price inflation, personal income growth, and growth in regional population.

Standard Industrial Classification (SIC)

Job sectors in the ABAG Projections are defined using classifications in the 1987 SIC Manual issued by the federal Office of Management and Budget:

• Agriculture & Mining -- includes all jobs in SIC codes 1-9, 10-14 (excluding 074 -- veterinarians).
• Construction -- includes all jobs in SIC codes 15-17.
• Finance, Insurance and Real Estate (F.I.R.E.) -- includes all jobs in SIC codes 60-67.
• Government -- includes all jobs in SIC codes 91-97.
• Manufacturing & Wholesale -- includes all jobs in SIC codes 20-39 (manufacturing) and 50-51 (wholesale).
• Other -- includes all jobs in SIC codes 15-17, (construction); 40-49, (transportation, communications, utilities); 60-67 (finance, insurance, real estate); and 91-97 (government, including national security).
• Retail -- includes all jobs in SIC codes 52-59.
• Services -- includes all jobs in SIC codes 70-89 and SIC code 074, such as the following services: personal, business, repair, motion pictures, amusement, and recreational, health, educational, legal, social, engineering, accounting, research, and management, as well as services provided by hotels and other lodging places.
• Transportation, Communications and Utilities (TCU) -- includes all jobs in SIC codes 40-49.

Total Jobs

Includes both full- and part-time activities that individuals perform to receive income. Total jobs are reported according to place-of-work rather than by place-of-residence. Total jobs include wage and salary workers plus self-employed persons for 1990. However, for 1995 and subsequent forecast years, total jobs assumes a constant relationship between self-employed workers and wage and salary workers. Note that the number of jobs does not equal the number of workers within the region because: 1) some workers hold more than one job; 2) some people who work in the region live elsewhere; and 3) some Bay Area residents commute to jobs outside the region. Therefore, the difference between total jobs and employed residents might be slightly overstated.

Geographic Terminology

Primary Metropolitan Statistical Area (PMSA)

A county or cluster of counties that meet criteria defined by the Office of Management and Budget in Washington, DC. These criteria consider population as well as various measures of economic activity.

Sphere-of-Influence (SOI)

A planning area usually larger than, although sometimes contiguous with, a city's municipal limits. Spheres-of-Influence are assigned by each county's Local Agency Formation Commission and typically indicate the probable ultimate boundaries of a city (including areas which may eventually be annexed).

Urban Service Area

Urban Service Areas are assigned by a county's Local Agency Formation Commission and indicate the area eligible to receive urban infrastructure (sewer and/or water service) in the short term.

Other

Available Land

Land available for development according to local development policies, including both vacant and redevelopable acreage. Available land is presented in the following categories: residential, basic, and local serving. Available land excludes areas planned for public parks, open space, agriculture, non-year-round housing, and rural residential housing (less than one unit per ten acres).

Basic Land

A land use category used primarily for industrial or basic employment-generating uses. Basic activity includes businesses which export goods or services outside the region, (or act as suppliers to other regional industries), four-year colleges, and federal and state government facilities.

Developed Land

Land occupied by residential (at densities equal to or higher than one unit per 10 acres), local-serving, and/or basic employment activities or developed public rights-of-way (streets, highways, transit lines).

Local Policy Survey

A survey of land available for development as determined by local governments' land use policies. This survey gathers data on proposed land uses and policies affecting the timing and extent of development. This information is used as a supply-side constraint in the distribution of countywide population, households, and jobs to the PROJECTIONS 2000 subregional study areas.

Local-serving Land

A land use category used primarily for commercial or other uses which serve local residents or business activities.