Introduction

The theme of Projections 2000 is "Transformation of the San Francisco Bay Area into the 21st Century." While significant shifts are occurring within the region's borders, its growth is causing phenomenal changes in surrounding communities.

According to the California Department of Finance, the Bay Area's population is projected to increase by 37 percent by 2040. Yet this increase is dwarfed by the population growth forecast for the 10 counties adjoining the Bay Area: Lake, Mendocino, Merced, Monterey, Sacramento, San Benito, San Joaquin, Santa Cruz, Stanislaus and Yolo. In total, these counties are expected to grow 97 percent during the same period.

Over the next 40 years, the population of counties west of the San Francisco Bay -- Marin, San Francisco and San Mateo counties -- will grow the least. San Francisco's population is forecast to decrease by 14 percent. In the East Bay, the Counties of Alameda and Contra Costa are forecast to grow 41 and 36 percent respectively. Santa Clara County, in the South Bay, will grow by 47 percent. But the most significant growth will occur in the North Bay. The counties of Sonoma and Solano are projected to grow by 64 percent and 75 percent, respectively, while Napa County will increase by 51 percent.

But the Bay Area's growth -- or lack thereof -- is being offset by an increase on the other side of the region's borders. Triple-digit growth is forecast for Lake, San Joaquin, Stanislaus, Merced, San Benito and Monterey Counties. That growth is being fueled in part by lower housing prices.

While jobs in the Bay Area are abundant, affordable housing is not. People are migrating to places where real estate prices are considerably lower, and travelling longer distances to get to work. This housing-jobs mismatch has already begun to have a significant impact on the Bay Area.

Many Bay Area residents reject the idea that we are becoming the next Los Angeles in terms of sprawl, but the idea is becoming a reality. Living in San Bernardino and working in LA (87 miles) is considered a normal part of life in Southern California. Yet we're amazed to hear about people living in Patterson and commuting to Palo Alto (also 87 miles).

The Bay Area's growth management challenges are no longer restricted to the nine counties. The region's economy, housing and transportation networks are increasingly linked to adjoining counties. Local policymakers in the years ahead will need to consider their decisions in the context of county, regional and inter-regional impacts.