Summary of Findings

Regional Overview

As we move into the 21st century, there's a sense of anticipation that the new millenium will usher in dramatic changes. Yet the San Francisco Bay Area has already begun that transformation.

The metamorphosis began in the late 1990s. Our population became more ethnically diverse and older. The gap between the "haves" and the "have-nots" grew. Job opportunities were no longer tied to a handful of high-tech sectors, but expanded to complimentary and competitive industry clusters. Companies and jobs began to move from the urban centers, causing cities ringing the edges of the region to grow.

In the next 20 years, that development trend will result in the region's most significant transformation: the diffusion of Silicon Valley. As neighboring cities and counties carve out their own "silicon-area" niches, Silicon Valley will no longer be exclusively confined to the South Bay.

These changes will impact future public policy decisions and our overall quality of life. The consequences of these changes will require policymakers to address a variety of land use, transportation, economic and social issues. And, as the Bay Area continues to grow, we all will have to contend with higher costs of living, higher real estate prices, longer commutes, more traffic congestion and increased environmental concerns.

However, these consequences are not inevitable. The Bay Area can continue to be one of the greatest places to live and work, if we effectively plan and prepare for this transformation. The information in Projections can help us plan for that future.

ABAG is required by state mandate to prepare regional economic and demographic forecast for the San Francisco Bay Area every two years. Our latest edition -- Projections 2000 -- provides current estimates of the population, labor force, households, income and jobs for the period 1995 to 2020. These estimates are used to allocate federal and state funds for capital projects, determine city and county housing needs, manage traffic congestion and estimate future sources of air pollution. Although local governments rely on this information, all Bay Area residents and businesses can benefit from these findings.

Population

People from across the country and all over the world continue to flock to the San Francisco Bay Area. The warm climate, beautiful setting, recreational activities, top universities, and career opportunities are all factors in attracting newcomers. Over the next 20 years, the Bay Area will be home to more than 8 million people -- a 16 percent increase over the current population. The population growth will mainly be due to increases in births and life expectancy rather than migration.

POPULATION GROWTH BY COUNTY

RATE OF POPULATION GROWTH BY COUNTY County 2000-2020 % Change Alameda 14% Contra Costa 24% Marin 10% Napa 23% San Francisco 1% San Mateo 10% Santa Clara 15% Solano 36% Sonoma 25%

The population of Santa Clara County will exceed 2 million, while the population in Alameda and Contra Costa Counties is expected to grow to 1.7 million and 1.2 million, respectively. Solano County is forecast to grow the fastest, increasing 36 percent to approximately 500,000 people, while San Francisco County will add only 1 percent, bringing its total to about 800,000.

In terms of absolute numbers and percentage change, population growth in San Jose and Fairfield will fuel the population explosion in Santa Clara and Solano Counties respectively. San Jose will add 129,300 new residents while Fairfield will increase by 49,100. It is also interesting to note that population increases in Antioch, Vacaville and Brentwood, cities on the edge of the region, are large enough to put these cities among the top 10 fastest growing cities in the region.

The Bay Area's population is not only growing over the next 20 years, but it's graying. In the year 2000, the 40-54 age group -- the Baby Boomers -- will account for nearly 24 percent of the Bay Area population. Yet by 2020, this age group will fall to less than 18 percent of the population as most of the Baby Boomers move on to retirement age. Those 65 years old and older will constitute 12 percent of the population in 2000, but nearly 20 percent in 2020.

As already noted, the Bay Area's melange of ethnicities and nationalities will expand. Whites will no longer be in the majority. By 2020, Whites will constitute 41 percent of the population, down from 61 percent in 1990. Estimates show the population of Latinos will grow from 15 percent to 24 percent during this same period. The number of Asians, Indians and Others will also jump from 15 percent to 27 percent. The population of African-Americans will remain constant at about 9 percent.

REGIONAL POPULATION BY AGE

REGIONAL POPULATION BY ETHNICITY
1990	2020

Jobs

The Bay Area job outlook is undergoing a transformation that is significant in both types of jobs available and their location. We are moving away from the perception of our regional economy being based only on high-tech manufacturing jobs based in Silicon Valley, to the reality of a much more broadly-based economy that will see growth in an array of job sectors offering employment throughout the Bay Area.

REGIONAL JOB GROWTH BY COUNTY

While there will be appreciable job growth in the South Bay between 2000 and 2020, many other subregions will see strong growth as well. To illustrate this point, note that the top ten cities ranked for job growth will be located in six different counties.

The nine-county Bay Area will add nearly a million new jobs over the next 20 years. While over 50 percent of the jobs will be in the services sector (business and professional, health and recreation, social and personal), the manufacturing and wholesale sector will comprise 19 percent of the new jobs, retail will be 11 percent, and the remaining 19 percent will include a variety of professional and other jobs (ranging from communications, insurance and real estate to construction and transportation).

Santa Clara will top the charts among counties for new jobs in the services sector (114,000 jobs) and manufacturing/wholesale (70,000). Alameda County will gain the most retail jobs (23,000) and "other" jobs (46,000), and will closely follow Santa Clara with 110,000 service jobs.

Among the cities, ABAG forecasts that San Francisco will gain the most new jobs over the next two decades, followed closely by San Jose. The next highest cities are scattered around the Bay: Santa Rosa, Fremont, Oakland, Fairfield. Employers will be numerous in the Tri-Valley, Sonoma County's Telecom Valley, San Francisco's Multi-Media Gulch and the Fremont-Milpitas corridor.

JOB DEMAND BY SECTOR

"Other" includes construction; transportation, communications, utilities; finance, insurance, real estate; and government, including national security.

The areas with the highest rates of job growth will be concentrated in the East and North Bays: unincorporated Solano County (299 percent), the Napa Airport area (286 percent), and Eastern Contra Costa County (147 percent) and cities and towns such as Oakley (260 percent), Cotati (209 percent), American Canyon (196 percent), and Brentwood (176 percent). East Palo Alto (142 percent) and Sonoma County communities like Windsor (134 percent), Healdsburg (113 percent) and Cloverdale (110 percent) will also experience high rates of growth.

From a county perspective, most of the new jobs will be concentrated in the East Bay, South Bay and San Francisco (nearly 600,000 jobs). But the rate of job growth will be highest in Solano County (63 percent), Napa County (50 percent) and Sonoma County (47 percent).

Santa Clara County will gain the most new jobs (231,000), followed by Alameda (219,550), Contra Costa (140,590), San Francisco (102,800), Sonoma (95,580), Solano (81,270), San Mateo (71,460), Napa (30,110) and Marin (27,000).

Household Income

Between 2000 and 2020, the average income for Bay Area households is projected to increase from $76,400 to $94,200 (in constant 1995 dollars), or about 23 percent. Household income generally refers to the total income received by all members of the household. Marin County continues to lead Bay Area counties with the highest real household income, reaching $124,200 by 2020. During the same 20-year period, Contra Costa and San Francisco Counties are expected to have the fastest growth rate in average household income, with both increasing 26 percent.

MEAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME BY COUNTY

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