"Assessing the Future"
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Acknowledgements
Table of Contents
List of Tables
I. Overview
II. Introduction
III. Description of the ABAG Modelling System
Regional Information System
County Level Forecasts
POLIS (Projective Optimization Land use Information System)
SAM (Subarea Projection Model)
Review and Local Review
IV. Sensitivity Analysis of MTC's "Build and No-Build"
Travel Time Scenarios
Assumptions and Initial Data Needs
Sensitivity Analysis
Did the Shifts have any Statistical Significance?
Detail Discussion of Relaxing Land Use
Constraints on Job Locational Decisions
Statistical Analysis
Detailed Discussion of Relaxing Land Use
Constraints on Job Location Decisions
V. Sensitivity of the POLIS Land Use / Transportation Model
VI. Defining "Build" and "No Build" Scenarios in the
Unconstrained Land Use Simulation
VII. Conclusion
Appendix A: ABAG's Modelling System
Appendix b: Results of the "Build" and "No Build" Scenatio with the
Constrained and Uconstrained Land Use Simulation
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1. Long Term Job Growth: Trends vs. Forecast
Table 2. Impact of Land Use Constraints on the Distribution
of Households in Alameda and Contra Costa Counties
Table 3. Number of jobs by Corridor in POLIS Simulations
in the Year 2010
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