ABAG Shaken Awake! Report Modeling Results for Future Bay Area Earthquakes
	from the 1996 report (NOT updated with 2003 data)

Peninsula San Andreas Earthquake

San Gregorio Earthquake

Northern Hayward Earthquake

Southern Hayward Earthquake

Entire Hayward Earthquake

Healdsburg-Rodgers Creek Earthquake

Maacama Earthquake

West Napa Earthquake

Concord-Green Valley Earthquake

Northern Calaveras Earthquake

Greenville Earthquake

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The following pages summarize the results of the models for each scenario. The earthquake summaries provide

estimates of uninhabitable dwelling units by construction type and county; and
estimates of the minimum number of people required to seek public shelter.

ABAG recommends that the entire report, Shaken Awake!, be read before using the maps and charts provided for each scenario be used for emergency or mitigation planning.

Note that this modeling process for predicting displaced populations and peak shelter populations des not include four important influences:

	the populations that seek shelter due to non-structural damage (which can increase the size of the shelter population by 50%;
	pre-disaster homeless;
	secondary disasters (such as toxic gas releases and fires); and
	non-resident populations (such as tourists and commuters).

Care should be taken in using these results. The peak shelter population values could easily be increased by 50%, or even doubled, for planning purposes.

The values are aggregated from modeling performed on individual census tracts. Thus, the peak shelter population map shows census tracts, not individual building locations. Total values are more accurate than values for specific counties and building types.

Some users may wish the results aggregated by city, rather than by county. Those users should refer to Appendix F in the full Shaken Awake! report.

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ABAG, the Association of Bay Area Governments, is the regional planning and services agency for the nine-county San Francisco Bay Area.

This page was last updated 10/20/03 by jbp.