ABAG Shaken Awake Report - Modeling Results

	ABAG Shaken Awake! Report Southern Hayward Earthquake

	from the 1996 report (NOT updated with 2003 data)

Regional Map of Ground Shaking Intensity from the Southern Hayward Earthquake
Chart Showing Bay Area Housing Impacts from the Southern Hayward Earthquake
Map Showing Peak Shelter Population from the Southern Hayward Earthquake

This scenario earthquake is for a magnitude 7.0 earthquake on the southern segment of the Hayward fault between southern Oakland and the border of Alameda and Santa Clara counties.
The effects of a strong earthquake along any portion of the Hayward fault would be devastating because this area is so heavily urbanized. An event along the southern segment of the fault would again be hardest felt in Alameda County. This time though, there is significantly more damage to post-1939 one to three story multi-family dwellings; during an event on the southern segment of the Hayward fault, the damage to dwellings in these types of buildings is over 40% greater than the damage to them in the event of the northern segment. The reason for this pattern is that this type of construction is more common in the southern cities of Alameda County which were more recently urbanized than the older northern cities.
Also significant with the southern segment of the Hayward fault is the fact that the damage estimate to San Francisco is greater than it is in Santa Clara County, even though, geographically, Santa Clara County is closer to the fault. As in the case of Alameda County in the event of the San Gregorio earthquake, San Francisco's housing stock includes buildings which are older and more susceptible to earthquake damage.
As in the case of the estimate of uninhabitable dwelling units, Alameda County is again the hardest hit in terms of both displaced and peak shelter populations. Over 130,000 people in Alameda County would be displaced, creating a need to shelter over 38,000 people in that county alone.
San Francisco and Santa Clara counties show similar peak shelter estimates. While the peak shelter estimate is 10% higher in San Francisco than in Santa Clara County, the total displaced population is actually higher in Santa Clara by 8%. This difference can be attributed to the impact of demographic factors, such as income and household type, in the calculations of peak shelter population.

ABAG, the Association of Bay Area Governments, is the regional planning and services agency for the nine-county San Francisco Bay Area.

This page was last updated 10/20/03 by jbp.