ABAG Shaken
Awake! Report
Entire Hayward Earthquake
from
the 1996 report (NOT updated with 2003 data)
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ABAG Shaken
Awake! Report |
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from
the 1996 report (NOT updated with 2003 data)
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Regional Map of Ground Shaking Intensity from the Entire Hayward Earthquake
This scenario earthquake is for a magnitude 7.3 earthquake on the entire length of the Hayward fault from San Pablo Bay to the border of Alameda and Santa Clara counties.
The damage estimate for an earthquake along the entire Hayward fault represents, by far, the forecast with the most significant housing losses of the eleven estimates outlined in this report. With an area-wide loss of over 150,000 housing units, this scenario is over 70% higher than the northern Hayward event, the next highest damage estimate. An earthquake along the entire Hayward fault would have devastating consequences for the cities in this region. As in the case of the northern and southern Hayward events, Alameda County is again the hardest hit. This time the impact is even greater; over 16% of Alameda County's total housing stock would be uninhabitable.
The impacts on multi-family construction are even more staggering; 37% of Alameda County's multi-family housing stock would be deemed uninhabitable. Over the entire Bay Area, 16% of the multi-family housing stock would not be fit for habitation. Likewise, the devastating damage estimates for unreinforced masonry buildings emphasizes the vulnerability of these buildings -- over the entire Bay Area, almost 55% of them would be uninhabitable, while in Alameda County an astonishing 92% of them would become uninhabitable.
The effects of an earthquake along the entire length of the Hayward fault would be devastating due to the shear magnitude of the numbers. Overall, over 370,000 people would be displaced creating a need to shelter over 106,000 people, or the equivalent of the entire population of Berkeley. As in the case of the uninhabitable units, Alameda County is again the hardest hit. Almost 205,000 people in Alameda County would be displaced, creating a need to shelter over 60,000 people in that county alone.
As with the scenarios on the Northern and Southern Hayward fault, the peak shelter population is not limited to the area adjacent to the fault, but is most significant within inner city areas. Again, both Alameda and San Francisco counties are expected to produce the highest percentages of shelter populations relative to their respective displaced population. These counties combined are expected to generate over 81% of the total shelter population.
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ABAG, the Association of Bay Area Governments, is the regional planning and services agency for the nine-county San Francisco Bay Area.This page was last updated 10/20/03 by jbp.
