POPULATION CHANGE AMONG CHILDREN

The size of the region’s school-age population will vary widely around the region in the next two decades. In Solano, Sonoma, Napa, and Contra Costa counties the school-age population will increase 25–35 percent by 2040. At the same time, the population of children 17 years old or younger will shrink in Marin and San Francisco counties.

Population fluctuations may require the construction, or closure, of schools. Daycare demand may ease with a decline in the number of children in the zero-to-4-year-old bracket. A soaring college-age population will force colleges and universities to maximize the use of their facilities. But infrastructure questions are only one of many challenges the region must confront in educating its children.

Population Change Among San Francisco Bay Area Children, 2000-2040

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THE LANGUAGE CHALLENGE

In 1996, more than 50 percent of the Bay Area’s K-12 students were children of color. By 2020, that percentage will grow. Many of those children will start school speaking a primary language other than English. In academic year 1996-97, approximately 12 percent of the region’s K-12 students were classified as “limited English proficient,” according to the Demographics Unit of the California Department of Education. Local school districts and the state are likely to continue to be embroiled in debates about how to maximize the academic success of these children.

INCOME AND PERFORMANCE

Poverty rates in the Bay Area are low compared to other similarly sized regions in the country. However, given the region’s higher cost of living, the actual poverty rate relative to other areas is probably higher. Plus, the poverty rate has been growing faster than the U.S. as a whole. Between 1989 and 1994 (the latest year for which data are available), the number of Bay Area residents living in poverty grew by 2.7 percent.

San Francisco Bay Area K-12 Public School Students with Limited English Proficiency

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Average California SAT Scores by Parental Income and Race / Ethnicity
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Research suggests that there may be a correlation between income level or economic factors and academic performance as measured by SAT scores. According to a recent report by the University of California Outreach Task Force entitled New Directions for Outreach, students whose parents are more affluent score higher on their SAT tests.

The finding was based on 1995 College Board data on California SAT takers. Many factors influence a student’s achievement, including pervasive group stereotypes and peer culture. But the researchers note that parents’ daily involvement in their children’s educational progress is crucial. As more parents are forced to travel long distances to work or maintain more than one job to make ends meet, that involvement is constrained.

For the last two decades the proportion of Bay Area residents in the lowest income brackets has grown. This trend is expected to continue. To the extent that it does, the challenges confronting Bay Area schools will be compounded.

FINANCING PUBLIC K-12 EDUCATION

Bay Area school districts will be hard pressed to meet these and other related challenges if they do not receive substantially more funds. According to a 1996 report by Education Week, California ranked 48th in the nation in terms of the relative fiscal effort it exerted on behalf of K-12 public education. It also ranked 41st in terms of per-pupil spending in 1995-96 (the most recent year for which data are available), investing $4,977 per student in contrast to the U.S. average of $6,103. Although California boosted its per-pupil expenditures in 1996-97, it’s unlikely to have closed the gap.

California's K-12 Expenditures Per Student Compared to the U.S. Average