GROWING TRAFFIC CONGESTION

During the 1990s, traffic congestion on regional and local roadways has steadily increased. A significant portion of the congestion during peak commute hours is the result of Silicon Valley’s burgeoning economy. The State Department of Transportation (Caltrans) estimates that during the two-year period 1995-1996, two-thirds of new highway commuters were headed to the South Bay. However, the region’s traffic woes extend beyond the South Bay and peak commute hours.

Fewer than one in four automobile trips made by Bay Area residents are to work. The vast majority of daily trips are less than five miles. They are trips to the grocery store, gym, daycare center, or a child’s soccer practice.

A 45 percent drop in real dollars in the cost of gasoline per mile between 1980 and 1990 encouraged more people to slip behind the wheel. During that period, the number of people in the Bay Area driving alone to work grew from 1.6 million to 2.1 million—a 35 percent increase—despite significant public investment in mass transit and High Occupancy Vehicle (HOV) lanes.

Growth in San Francisco Bay Vehicle Ownership, 1930-2010
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San Francisco Bay Area Jobs and Housing Located Near Ferry and Rail Service
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The way we have designed our communities, particularly modern subdivisions, has also forced us into our cars. Long distances between home and other activity centers often necessitate a car. This poses a significant problem for the more than two million Bay Area residents who can’t drive, many of whom are seniors, disabled, low-income or children.

It is not economical to provide mass transit to low-density neighborhoods with few houses per acre. However, if current trends continue, most new housing built between 1995 and 2020 will be low-density, single-family developments on the region’s periphery. Eighty percent of this forecasted development will be built more than three miles from a rail station—BART, Caltrain, Santa Clara Light Rail, Muni Light Rail—or the ferry terminals.

ONE WAY OUT OF THE JAM

Given the escalating imbalance between job and housing growth, extensive residential development in outlying areas poorly served by public transit, and constrained transit operating funds, the Bay Area is likely to see significantly more highway congestion in the future.

One way to counter this trend would be to make more creative use of the large number of vacant and underdeveloped lots (land occupied by abandoned or deteriorating buildings) near the region’s rail stations. Housing constructed in these areas would offer an alternative to those who have been forced to live on the region’s periphery, far from mass transit. The more Bay Area residents can and chose to walk, bicycle, or use public transit, the less congested our roads will be, the cleaner our air and water will be, the longer our open space will remain undeveloped, and the less money will be needed for highway expansion and related infrastructure.

Current and Projected Highway Bottlenecks

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