Projections 96 Introduction Projections 96 IntroductionPROJECTIONS 96 provides data for the Census years 1980 and 1990. The forecast covers the nine-county San Francisco Bay Area for the years 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2015. Projections of population, households, jobs, income, and employed residents are included for the region and each of nine counties. Five Primary Metropolitan Statistical Areas (PMSAs), 100 city-centered study areas, and selected unincorporated study areas receive forecasts as well. Projections by census tract are also created by, and are available from, ABAG.
City and unincorporated areas are approximated in many cases by using the spheres of influence defined by Local Agency Formation Commissions (LAFCOs), urban service areas, or a combination of both.
In the San Francisco Bay Area, ABAG's projections are used by a multitude of public and private groups. Such projections provide a consistent data base for a variety of subregional, regional, and state programs. Cities, counties, and special districts can anticipate needs and problems that may not be apparent from localized trends. Also, businesses making locational and strategic decisions use ABAG's regional growth projections extensively.
It is essential that users understand the context of ABAG's projections. PROJECTIONS 96 represents the expected or most likely growth scenario for the Bay Area. It can also be defined as the upper bound of a forecast range. However, it should be not interpreted as a high-end forecast. Considering historical trends as well as existing and projected economic and demographic changes, at least at the regional level, expected growth is not likely to exceed the levels identified in this publication. These projections are based upon current information and may clearly change in the future as more updated information becomes available. Thus, ABAG's projections should not be viewed as the future. Forecasts are merely paths to a future, based upon past trends, assumptions about expected changes in the trends, and finally, existing conditions.
Among the key assumptions used to create these projections are that local governments' plans, policies, and regulations affect the use of land. Local development policies reflect city, county, and service district intentions regarding development and the provision of urban services such as sewers, water, and roads. Land use policies of local governments and districts were initially analyzed in ABAG's 1981-1982 Local Development Policy Survey, with continuous updates and major revisions approximately every other year.
Although such policy information is a key input assumption in ABAG's forecast, PROJECTIONS 96 is not, in and of itself, the policy of any given city, county, or district.
Policy information is used as a supply side constraint or attractor of demand for housing or job location. While ABAG forecasts have policy implications, it must be stressed that they should not be applied without full understanding of the underlying assumptions, limitations, and procedures used by ABAG to update and incorporate new information.
The projections process includes extensive local participation and review. After the preliminary numbers are created, local governments review the projections which are modified where appropriate. After the local review process, ABAG's Executive Board members receive a report on adjustments made based on local government input, and the Board formally adopts the projections.
PROJECTIONS 96 presents the most recent estimates and forecasts of employment, population, and households for the period 1995 to 2015. National economic growth conditions, the relative competitiveness of the region's economy, and the ability of the region's land supply to support managed growth are considered in these forecasts.
ABAG's projections are designed to aid public and private planners in assessing the degree of additional infrastructure that would likely be needed to accommodate anticipated growth. Infrastructure is defined here as: roads; water supply; sewage collection, treatment, and disposal facilities; solid waste facilities; and energy and communication facilities. The provision of this infrastructure will affect the timing of development potential but should not be viewed as a long-term constraint. Technological change, increased efficiency, and expansion of existing infrastructure usually overcome the constraints to growth. The more fundamental constraints, such as educational quality; cost competitiveness; the availability, density, and cost of land; the quality of the physical environment; and the lack of progressive government are primary long-term constraints to wealth creation and economic opportunity for all citizens.
These forecasts are designed to point to potential needs, as well as provide a forum for discussing the future. Economic growth in the Bay Area has been associated with high value-added industries that, in turn, provide high wage jobs. The ability to attract these types of industries has been based on a combination of the region's natural amenities, research institutions and a highly educated workforce. The challenge to the regional community is to continue to foster these factors in an economy that will grow more slowly than in the 1970's and 1980's. The regional economy will also be challenged by the growing income inequality. Average income and total jobs do not express all of the factors needed to create a healthy economy.
Users of PROJECTIONS 96 should consider the following limitations:
In the past, ABAG has been required by state mandate to prepare a Housing Needs Determination for each city and county in the Bay Area. The determinations are part of the five-year update cycle for the Housing Element of the local General Plan, and were last adopted in 1989. However, since the State Legislature has not funded this work for several years, it is unknown when (or if) new housing need allocations will be prepared.
The Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC) requires that Congestion Management Agencies use ABAG's projections as the basis of the congestion management plans developed for each county.
Finally, the Bay Area Air Quality Management District uses the ABAG projections series for estimating future stationary and mobile sources of air pollution.