Summary of Projections 96 Findings

Regional Findings

• Over the forecast period, the San Francisco Bay Region will add about 1.2 million new residents. The economy should generate long-term economic activity that will create a demand for about 994,000 new jobs. However, the Bay Area will not fully recover from the recent recession until 1996. We define recover as returning the 1990 employment _ the historical high prior to the recession. Alameda and Santa Clara will take until 1997 to fully recover. San Francisco will not equal its 1990 job total until 1999. Housing production will continue to lag behind demand between 1995 and 2015, despite a production level of over 512,000 new dwelling units. This is lower than the potential demand for housing, but is generally reflective of local policies.

• New high technology industries will be an important new source of jobs during the forecast period. The character of peoples work and homes will be changed by new computer based technology. However, traditional sectors of the economy will continue to grow, and provide most of the jobs in the economy.

• Taxable retail sales in the Bay Area are expected to reach $80.4 billion in constant 1995 dollars by 1998. This is equivalent to 8.4 percent real growth between 1990 and 1998. Real taxable sales increased in 1994 after three years of decline. Retail sales are concentrated in the most populous counties, with Santa Clara accounting for 29% of retail sales and Alamada accounting for almost 21% in 1994.

• Regionally, more jobs will be added to the service sector during the forecast period than any other job sector. It should increase by over 441,000 jobs.

• High technology manufacturing's share of total Bay Area manufacturing employment will remain constant over the period 1995 to 2015. This is a reversal of trends of the last twenty years. This share does not include aerospace manufacturing employment.

• High technology employment will continue to decentralize in the region, with southern Alameda County being the main beneficiary of this trend. However, the decentralization of high technology employment will not be as dramatic as that of office employment.

• Restructuring of high technology manufacturing and the banking industry is nearly complete. Retail and business service restructuring are also ending. During the remainder of the 1990s we expect that restructuring will be most prevalent in the health care industry.

• Housing production, especially of units affordable to moderate and lower income households, and high housing prices remain the most serious constraints to the economic health of the region. High housing prices have negatively affected disposable income which in turn has affected taxable sales. The reduction in real growth in taxable sales has affected local governments' tax bases and their ability to finance services and infrastructure.

• Over the period 1995-2015, the school age population will increase by 218,700 or an 18 percent increase over 1995. Of this increase, 109,700 will be in the 5-14 age cohort.

County and City Findings

• The North Bay counties of Solano, Sonoma and Napa, as well as the East Bay county of Contra Costa consistently constitute the top four ranking positions for growth in population, households, employed residents, and jobs between 1995 and 2015.

• Contra Costa, Santa Clara and Alameda counties will lead the region in both population and household growth between 1995 and 2015. Population growth in these three counties will account for nearly 64 percent of the region's population growth.

• Solano, Napa and Sonoma counties will have the greatest percentage increase in employment demand between 1995 and 2015. Solano's employment should jump by 68 percent, followed by Napa with a 60 percent increase and Sonoma with a projected increase of 56 percent.

• Solano County should have the highest rate of population increase between 1995 and 2015, increasing by about 40 percent during this period. The county's share of the region's population will increase from about 5.8 percent in 1995 to 6.9 percent by 2015.

• Among the large cities in the region--those having a population of greater than 300,000-- San Jose will experience the largest population growth (an additional 160,100 residents). San Francisco will add more jobs than any other city.

• Among mid-size cities in the region--those with a 1995 population between 100,000 and 300,000--Santa Rosa will have the largest absolute population growth. Santa Rosa will also lead in job additions, adding 41,530 jobs during the 1995 to 2015 period. Fremont has the second highest number of additional jobs with 34,390.

• Of the cities currently in the 50,000 to 100,000 population category, Fairfield will be adding the most new residents. In percentage terms, Fairfield and Antioch will have the highest rates of population growth. The two cities together should add more than 109,300 new residents over the next twenty years. Combined, our forecast shows that these communities will add 40,360 new jobs between 1995 and 2015.

• The most dramatic percentage increase in jobs will occur in medium to small cities--those with an estimated 1995 population of less than 60,000. The Tri-Valley subregional study areas of Dublin, Livermore, and Pleasanton should add almost 73,300 jobs (between 1995 and 2015), or a 59 percent increase over the 1995 estimate. In 1995, these subregional study areas had 81,100 jobs. During the forecast period, San Ramon's subregional employment growth will begin to slow. It will add 24,100 new jobs between 1995 and 2015. This compares to the five-year period 1985 to 1990, when 18,300 jobs were added to San Ramon's economy.

• The Napa Airport Industrial Area should have the greatest percentage increase in jobs between 1995 and 2015 in the Bay Area. Between 1995 and 2015, the expected increase in jobs is more than 1100 percent. American Canyon, Brentwood, Windsor, and Rural East Contra Costa County round out the top five subregional study areas; all will have a substantial percentage increase in jobs over the forecast period.

• The nine-county Bay Region consists of about 4.4 million acres of land. About 3.5 million of these acres are not available for any type of development. About 658,000 acres have been developed as of 1990.

• In 1990, ABAG estimated that housing occupied about 449,400 acres, with commercial and industrial development using about 190,000 acres. In 1995, based upon local development policies of all the jurisdictions in the region, ABAG estimated that about 225,800 acres are available for (1995-2015) residential development. An additional 53,600 acres are available for commercial and industrial use. However, several caveats should be noted: these numbers includes acres developed between 1990 and 1995; a large portion of identified available land has environmental and/or infrastructure constraints that limit its immediate use, thereby raising development costs; and finally, we have not fully quantified the redevelopment potential in the region.