Historical Development Patterns The development of regions, including the Bay Area, is often described in terms of four broad classifications: inner cities, inner suburbs, suburbs, and outer suburbs.

The Bay Area’s inner cities constitute the historic core of the region and include the urban centers in and around Oakland and San Francisco. They were generally built out by 1900. The characteristic urban form of these areas is the street grid. Land use changes within the urban core areas are usually due to redevelopment—either of former industrial areas or of individual lots and buildings. Examples can be seen in Emeryville and in the South of Market District of San Francisco.

The areas classified as inner suburbs developed between the turn of the century and World War II. Included in these zones are the residential areas surrounding the inner cities, and communities that expanded with the railroad system. Examples include San Leandro and Richmond. The urban form of these areas generally continues the grid pattern of the inner cities. Relatively few land use changes are occurring in these areas today, although redevelopment is seen in some areas. The large portions of the Bay Area that developed after World War II, but before 1980, are classified as suburbs. Although development patterns vary, these areas tend to have urbanized around a newly-expanding automobile transportation system. Rather than expanding concentrically around previous development, they spread like arms along highways. Suburbs are characterized by wide commercial arterials connecting pockets of single-family homes. Today’s land use changes are typically larger-scale housing, commercial, and light-industrial infill projects. Outer suburbs are areas that were subdivided in the last 15 to 20 years around some of the smaller, old railroad communities in the outlying areas of the greater Bay Area. Examples include Antioch and Vacaville. Typically they take the form of single-family, residential subdivisions accompanied by retail service developments and, occasionally, major office parks. These areas are isolated semi-urban centers threaded together by a system of major arterial streets and highways.

Land Use Patterns Today The map on the opposite page shows current patterns of land use. Overall, the region covers 4.4 million acres or about 7,000 square miles (excluding major bodies of water).

Forest land and wetlands account for 41%. Approximately half of this–850,000 acres–is protected public land or designated open space. A total of 800,000 acres or 18% is developed urban land. This includes residential, commercial, and industrial uses, plus airports, golf courses, cemetaries, and urban parks.

Existing Developed Land, 1995 Potentially Available for Development, 1995-2000 County Total Area Residential Commercial / Industrial Residential Commercial / Industrial Alameda 473,300 77,700 43,100 23,000 11,900 Contra Costa 462,000 88,400 32,600 38,800 8,900 Marin 332,700 29,800 9,000 9,000 2,200 Napa 481,200 12,100 4,900 9,200 3,700 San Francisco 29,800 16,000 8,200 900 1,600 San Mateo 285,300 40,300 16,500 17,400 6,700 Santa Clara 825,800 108,900 45,600 14,000 10,500 Solano 533,000 27,100 18,500 17,400 9,500 Sonoma 1,013,400 59,000 14,200 66,800 2,700 Region 4,436,500 459,300 192,600 196,500 57,700 All areas are gross acres, including roads, sidewalks, parking, etc. Land potentially available for development includes some area zoned at densities as low as 1 housing unit / 9 acres. It is unlikely that such area will see intense development.

Click on the following maps listed below to see image :

Existing Land Use, 1995 Available Land, 1995-2020 Freeway Congestion (a.m.), 1996 Fixed-Node Transit Network, 1997

Survey of Local Government Policies Since 1975, ABAG has collected information on current land use and development policies of local governments in the region. Estimates based on this information are that between 1995 and 2020, a total of 196,500 acres will be available for residential development and 57,700 acres will be available for commercial and industrial development. As listed below and plotted on page 6, the largest quantities of land are available in the East Bay and North Bay counties. The local policy database primarily reflects local general plans, although zoning regulations, growth boundaries, growth initiatives, and other relevant policies have also been incorporated. This amalgamation of data allows a reasonably accurate description of the supply of land available to accommodate future household and employment growth. It accounts for both vacant and redevelopable land. However, it is important to note that the database tends tounderestimate the potential for intensification or reuse of developed land. In addition, local government policies frequently change over time as communities reassess the desirability of growth. And, of course, land use is subject to a variety of political factors that may not be represented by existing local policies. It must also be noted that much of the land potentially available for development–particularly in Marin County and the North Bay–is zoned at very low densities. It is unlikely that significant numbers of housing units or businesses will be built in these areas. The reader is referred to later sections of this report for growth forecasts.

Understanding the Forecasts The forecasts presented in the next four sections are based on ABAG’s soon to be released Projections 98, an extensive analysis of regional economic, demographic, and regulatory conditions. One of the key assumptions in the forecasts is the recognition that local government plans, policies, and regulations dramatically affect future growth and land use. However, the forecasts are not the policy of any given city or county and should not be viewed as a “build-out scenario” based on local government general plans or only the local policy database discussed above. Instead, the forecasts represent likely development activity. They reflect the results of projected national, regional, and sub-regional economic and demographic conditions, shaped by estimated transportation costs and the availability of land.

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