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By comparison with the other three subregions, the West Bay—Marin, San Francisco, and San Mateo counties—shows less change, both short-term and long-term. In the case of San Francisco, this is simply because the city has been densely developed for some time and its land use patterns are well established. In Marin County, development is being constrained by local policies. And, on the Peninsula, land use changes are limited by a combination of existing dense development in the eastern corridor and policies that control growth near the coast.
A Home in the City Even as the South Bay becomes a regional employment and cultural hub, San Francisco retains its primacy. San Francisco is, as much as ever, a desireable place to work, visit and live. This is evident in the city’s exceedingly low apartment vacancy rate and its issuing of nearly 2,000 permits for new housing units (mostly multi-family) between January 1996 and July 1997. Although this is significantly lower than the number of permits issued in the East or South Bay, it exceeds the number issued in all of San Mateo County. It is twice the number approved in Marin County during the same period. Recent Nonresidential Development Office development in San Francisco has proceeded at a moderate pace in recent years. Activity has been most evident in the South of Market District. The only West Bay cities experiencing signifigant office developmentrecently were San Francisco, Novato, and Redwood City. San Francisco has also been the site of much of the recent retail/service development in the West Bay. An example is the Sony Entertainment Complex in Yerba Buena Center. Permits issued in San Francisco between January 1996 and June 1997 totaled over one million square feet. The other cities with notable retail/service development—Colma, San Mateo, and Belmont—together totaled 700,000 square feet. Industrial development has been slow in all parts of the West Bay. Long-Range Forecast Modest growth is the headline for the West Bay. In most cities, the number of households is forecast to increase by only about 10% between 1995 and 2020. Even in cases where larger percentage increases are forecast—Brisbane, East Palo Alto, and Half Moon Bay—the absolute number of households is modest. In these small cities, even increases of 40 to 80% translate into only a few thousand new housing units. Generally, more nonresidential development is expected between 1995 and 2020 than residential development. Still, nonresidential growth will be modest. A 20% increase in the inventory of nonresidential buildings is projected for most of the West Bay. The strongest surge will be in Novato, which has recently experienced a spurt of nonresidential development. |
