ABAG Projections 2007: Glossary of Terms

Capital Spending
The amount of investment required to sustain economic growth.

Commercial Interest Rate
The rate that banks charge large business customers. In the ABAG projections model, commercial interest rates affect nonresidential, utility, and highway construction, as well as capital formation in manufacturing.

Constant 2005 Dollars
Dollar values that have been adjusted to reflect actual purchasing power as measured by the 2005 Consumer Price Index (CPI) for all urban consumers in the San Francisco Metropolitan Area. The term constant dollars is interchangeable with the term real dollars. Comparing information presented in constant dollars is especially useful for determining the amount of real growth that has occurred, with the effects of inflation removed.

Consumer Price Index (CPI)
A composite of expenditures by consumers that measures price changes on a monthly basis.

Energy Price Change
The change in the price of electricity and all other fuels. Used to calculate the demand for energy, growth in final demand of personal consumption expenditures, and exports from the region, as well as the demand for replacement capital in the manufacturing sector.

Export Growth Rate
The average export growth rate for each industry sector in the regional economy. This is the most significant factor affecting regional job growth and output.

Government Spending Growth Rate
The growth rate of local and state government purchases in the regional economy. This growth rate affects the demand for products produced by an industry sector.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
A value that reflects the sum of consumption expenditures, government spending, capital formation, and net exports. United States' GDP affects demand for products exported from the Bay Area.

Gross Regional Product (GRP)
This number reflects the sum of demand by consumers, capital formation, government spending, and net exports generated in the Bay Area.

Home Mortgage Rate
The average interest rate on a loan secured for the purpose of purchasing or refinancing a home. Used to estimate demand for residential construction jobs.

Job Demand
Refers to the demand by an industry for employees, based upon an output level of that industry.

Labor Force Participation Rate
The percentage of the population age 16 or older that is either employed or looking for work. The interaction of job and labor force growth drives the migration of workers to and from the Bay Area.

NAICS Sectors as Defined by ABAG
Job sectors in the Projections are defined using classifications from the North American Industrial Classification System, (NAICS):

Agricultural and Natural Resources includes jobs in NAICS sectors 11 and 21: Agriculture, Fishing, Forestry, and Mining.

Manufacturing, Wholesale, and Transportation includes jobs in NAICS sectors 22, 31-33, 42 and 48-49: Utilities, Manufacturing, Wholesale, Transportation, and Warehousing.

Retail includes jobs in NAICS sectors 44 and 45.

Financial and Professional Services includes jobs in NAICS sectors 52-56: Finance and Insurance; Real Estate and Rental and Leasing; Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services; and Management of Companies and Enterprises, as well as Administrative Support, Waste Management, and Remediation Services.

Health, Educational, and Recreational Services includes jobs in NAICS sectors 61, 62, 71, 72 and 81: Educational Services; Health Care and Social Assistance; Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation; Accommodation and Food Services; and Other Services.

Other includes jobs in NAICS sectors 23, 51 and 92: Construction, Information, and Public Administration.

Output Per Worker
The constant dollar output per worker by sector. Output per worker affects prices, demand for a sector's output, and the rate of increase for capital investment by an individual industry.

Personal Consumption Expenditure Rate
The expected rate of change in consumption purchases by Bay Area households from Bay Area businesses. Personal consumption expenditures are affected by price inflation, personal income growth, and growth in regional population.

Total Jobs
Includes both full- and part-time activities that individuals perform to receive income. Total jobs are reported in this document by place-of-work, not place-of-residence. Total jobs for 2000 include wage and salary workers plus self-employed persons.

For 2005 and subsequent forecast years, ABAG assumes a constant relationship between self-employed workers and wage and salary workers. The number of jobs does not equal the number of workers within the region because: 1) some workers hold more than one job; 2) some people who work in the region live elsewhere; and 3) some Bay Area residents commute to jobs outside the region. Therefore, the difference between total jobs and employed residents might be slightly overstated.

Geographic Terms >>