ABAG Projections Modeling System

The regional forecasting model produces employment forecasts by industry that are, in turn, disaggregated into employment for individual counties. The county demographic component produces individual county-level population forecasts directly. County-level economic and demographic data serve as control totals for the subregional Projective Optimization Land Use Information System (POLIS) model. Finally, the results from the POLIS model are used as controls for the Subarea Allocation Model (SAM).

The potential for economic and demographic growth and its distribution are based on the availability of space (vacant land, under-utilized existing developed areas, and building sites that can be reused or redeveloped). Space must be adequate to allow for the forecast levels, whether it is the total region, county, zone, or census tract. Therefore, because of the importance of available space, land use data are collected from all jurisdictions in the Bay Area through the information provided in their general and specific plans. Periodically, ABAG also receives information through county assessor's files and other sources.

Policy-based development potential is used for the years 2015 and beyond in a manner that is broadly consistent with existing plans but also assumes a more "Smart-Growth" based projection.

Regional / County Forecast >>