ABAG Projections 2007: Modeling System

The disaggregation of employment and income for each of the nine counties in the Bay Area is calculated using a statistical model to estimate industry employment levels by sector for each of the nine counties, consistent with the employment forecasts produced by the regional I/O model. Prior to the forecasting process, predictive equations are developed. These equations recognize that employment in a particular industry in an individual county is related to factors such as employment in related industries, population growth, income growth, and competition from other geographic areas. Employment is predicted using data from several governmental agencies, including the U. S. Census Bureau and two State of California departments: the Employment Development Department and the Franchise Tax Board. The U. S. Census Bureau data are taken from the Census Transportation Planning Package and the County Business Patterns database. Population and income data are derived from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the State of California Department of Finance.

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