ABAG Projections 2007: Modeling System

The demographic component of the HENRY model uses the cohort-survival method to develop population forecasts. This method works by starting with a beginning population for each county, identified by age cohorts, and growing it over time using age-specific information about birth rates, birth timing, death rates, and net migration. Cohort-survival is a robust methodology, with few if any alternative methodologies offering similarly accurate empirical modeling output. Statistical trending is often used in conjunction with, but not as an alternative to, the cohort-survival method. The cohort-survival method's superior flexibility and theoretical foundation make it an unsurpassed choice in population forecasting.

Since data are available for individual county populations, ABAG estimates county populations directly. This is in contrast to employment estimates where regional data are used to estimate total regional employment and then allocated to individual counties.

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