ABAG Projections 2007: Modeling System

The interaction of the economic and demographic forecasts occurs through migration rates. The population forecast is used to generate a labor force forecast. A primary driver of in-migration occurs when a tight labor market causes people ("economic migrants") to relocate to obtain employment. Migration is also composed of (although to a lesser extent) social migration and retirement migration, which is dependent on employment, income, and the cost of living. The number of people migrating into each county is also subject to available housing.

A related component of the population forecast is interregional commuting. People working in the Bay Area, but living outside the region, are motivated by factors similar to economic migrants. However, housing costs and opportunities cause them to make different choices. In this forecast, a policy assumption was made to increase migration. This assumption resulted in an increased population and resulted in fewer in-commuters into the Bay Area.

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