ABAG Projections 2007: Modeling System

Travel to work, the availability and attractiveness of housing, and the current levels of nearby employment help to determine residential choice, or in other words, where individuals choose to live. The locational patterns of industries are influenced by the accessibility to labor supply, the proximity to other similar industries (agglomeration economies), the availability of land for development, and housing opportunities for employees.

The basis of the POLIS model is a random utility theory that describes the behavior of individuals (employees) selecting from a set of alternatives in order to maximize their utility (or benefit). The POLIS model is able to capture a measure of the factors that attract firms and individuals to particular parcels of land. The individual attractiveness variable incorporates factors like education, which is highly correlated with income, housing prices, and the cost of travel for work and other activities.

The constraints of the POLIS model are land supply, as described by ABAG's land use database potential, and the total employment and housing to be allocated to the areas within each county as derived from the HENRY model.

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