ABAG Projections 2007: Executive Summary

The forecast is designed to be a realistic assessment of growth in the region, but recognizes emerging trends in markets, demographics, and local policies that promote more compact infill development and transit-oriented development. This is particularly the case around fixed transit stations (rail and ferry terminals) and in selected transportation corridors. While these areas will see an increasing proportion of the region's growth, we expect that increase will begin slowly and expand over time.

We expect that between 2005 and 2035 the Bay Area's population will grow by about 2 million people. While we will also see about 1.75 million jobs added during the same time period, it is the growth in population and how it will shape the region in 2035 that is central to the forecast.

We expect the population to change in significant ways by 2035. For example, the median age in the Bay Area will increase from 36.5 years in 2005 to 42.5 years old by the end of the forecast in year 2035. This reflects a significant increase in the older population, with the 60-70 year old, 70-80 year old, and the over 80 year old cohorts increasing dramatically from today's numbers.

The older population will be different at the end of the forecast than the older population today. More of the older population will be active in the workforce in 2035. More are also likely to be living in urban areas so that they can have access to services and public transportation.

Recent trends, both in the Bay Area and nationwide, show an increase in the proportion of one and two person households. These are households that represent an older population whose grown children no longer live at home, and young professionals who are increasing delaying children or choosing not to have children. While households will continue to run the gamut of sizes and configurations, the trends suggest an increasing market for smaller housing units in urban areas.

Of course, the other issue is the price of housing. Bay Area housing is among the most expensive in the United States. Increasing the amount of smaller, more compact housing is one important way to address the cost of living in the region.

ABAG's Projections 2007 forecast shows that growth will occur across the region, but the pace of growth and the character of local areas will differ. Even with 2 million more residents, we continue to believe that the Bay Area will be a mix that includes large amounts of open space, rural areas, suburban areas, and urban areas.