Monterey Bay - Silicon Valley IRP

Monterey Bay - Silicon Valley
Inter-Regional Partnership

Existing Conditions
This section provides information on growth trends, the gap between jobs and housing, a comparison of ratios of jobs to housing units in market areas, the effects of growth trends on transportation improvements, and constraints and opportunities that affect jobs and housing balance. Baseline and forecast information are from the AMBAG 1997 Forecast and ABAG's Projections 2002. (See the August 2002 AMBAG Report Analysis of Anticipated Growth, 2000-2025 for more details.)

Population: The total population of the study area will reach 2.92 million by 2020, a 22 percent increase from 2.39 million in 2000. Santa Clara County jurisdictions, with 1.68 million residents in 2000 and representing 70 percent of the total study area population, will increase by 19 percent to over 2 million residents in 2020 and 68 percent of the total population. The tri-county Monterey Bay Area will grow from 708,000 in 2000 to 920,000 by 2020, an increase of 30 percent.
Housing: The study area will add about 177,500 new households, an increase of 22 percent, up from 810,000 in 2000 to 988,100 in 2020. About 61 percent (108,000) of the new households will be formed in Santa Clara County; 39 percent (69,000) will be formed in the tri-county Monterey Bay Area. Santa Clara County will have a total of 674,000 households by 2020, up from 565,000 in 2000. Monterey Bay Area jurisdictions will have a total of 313,700 households, up from 244,700 in 2000.
Jobs: In 2000, the study area had 1.38 million jobs, of which 1.09 million jobs (79 percent) were located in Santa Clara County and 290,200 (21 percent) were in Monterey, San Benito and Santa Cruz Counties. The study area is forecast to have a total of 1.69 million jobs by 2020, an increase of 311,600 (22 percent). 80 percent of those new jobs (249,100) will be located in Santa Clara County. 20 percent (62,500) will be added in the 3-county Monterey Bay Area.
Gap between Jobs and Housing: The Monterey Bay Area's growth of jobs will not keep pace with those relatively high population and household growth rates. That region's job to housing ratio is expected to decline from a ratio of 1.19 jobs per household in 2000 to 1.12 jobs per household in 2020. Housing production rates in Santa Clara County's employment centers will continue to fall short of the need generated by new jobs. Although Santa Clara County jurisdictions will gain 108,550 new households by 2020, that county's jobs/household ratio will increase to 1.99:1 jobs per household, up from 1.93:1 in 2000. Overall, the four-county study area will remain at a ratio of 1.71 jobs to 1 household in 2020, the same ratio as in 2000. By 2020, using a theoretical "jobs/housing" balance of 1.5 jobs for every one household, there will be a shortage of over 141,290 households in the four-county study area.
Lack of Affordability: Throughout the two regions, median income levels are not sufficient to purchase median priced homes. The nation's least affordable housing markets are part of the study area, indicating the severity of housing affordability challenges. Both regions, therefore, share the critical need to produce additional housing in a range of affordability levels.
Transportation Impacts: The number of commuters traveling from homes in other counties to work in Santa Clara County will increase dramatically by 2025, indicating a continued imbalance at regional and local levels to locate housing in proximity to jobs. Santa Clara County will have over 312,000 commuters coming in for work from all areas, a 36% increase from 2000. Of those, 75,300 will come from the tri-county Monterey Bay Area, an increase of 80%. The increase from Santa Cruz County to Santa Clara County will be about 50% (+15,100). There will be large increases in commuters from San Benito County to Santa Clara County (+10,800 since 2000) and from Monterey County to Santa Cruz County (+9,450 since 2000). In contrast, only 13,900 commuters will come from Santa Clara County to the three Monterey Bay Area counties.