Policy Based Forecasts
Projections 2009 is the official forecast of the Association of Bay Area Government. Projections 2009 included "Performance Targets" to identify environmental, land-use and transportation related impacts of growth. We also developed alternative land use scenarios to test how well we can address and balance these objectives through land use policies. For more on the performance targets, go to the Projections 2009 overview page.
In addition to the performance targets and alternative land use scenarios for Projections 2009, we continue to use "Policy Based Forecasts," as we have since Projections 2003, basing our forecast not only on what is currently planned, but also on a variety of local and regional policy assumptions.
Policy Assumptions
The long-term land use forecast represents our best assessment of what will be the built environment by the end of the forecast period. This assessment is determined not only from the economic and demographic models and local land use plans, but also from on-going discussions with local governments, regarding the feasibility of development, mostly due to the local political and fiscal environment.
The forecast also reflects a larger global, national, state or regional context, such as climate change, high energy costs, and the aging of the population. Over the long-term, these issues may strongly influence local land use plans and development decisions, for these are factors that many local governments may have yet to incorporate into their planning documents. Over time, we anticipate local plans will be modified to adjust to these largely unplanned realities.
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