Policy-based Projections 2003

On August 21, 2002, the project Steering Committee adopted the narrative Vision that came out of the workshops, which described a smart growth pattern of development for the Bay Area. The steering committee also accepted the jobs and housing numbers that came out of the public workshops as a starting point for the development of policy-based projections.

Before beginning the projections development process, the jobs and housing numbers were further revised to reflect analyses submitted by BART, the Bay Area Alliance for Sustainable Communities, and others. The next step involved converting the workshop materials into a form that could be used as input for ABAG models.

The policy-based modeling process makes assumptions about future incentives for housing production, as well as land use and regulatory changes conducive to smart growth. The new assumptions are tempered by many economic and demographic factors ABAG considers in its standard biennial projections process. One of the key steps in developing the projections is to factor in the land available for development, including infill and redevelopment potential. Once the available land is estimated, the process takes into account expected demand, based both on existing economic and demographic conditions, and potential incentives.

Draft policy-based Projections 2003 were sent out on December 20, 2002 for review to all local governments and interested parties in order to provide an opportunity to make specific comments on the draft projections. Additional points of contact with government officials and the public ocurred throughout the projections process, and many of their suggestions were incorporated in the final forecasts.

At its March 20, 2003 meeting the ABAG Executive Board adopted Projections 2003. Now they will be used as a basis for MTC's Regional Transportation Plan and the BAAQMD's Air Quality Plan in the coming year.

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